The Bulls Take Over the Butter Market

The bulls are firmly back in the saddle in the EU butter market. Prices have broken through previous highs seen earlier this year, with the majority of our partners actively securing volume in a trading range from €7,200 to €7,425. If we’re well informed, futures even peaked at €7,500. The forward curve now stretches solidly from June through to Q4, offering a robust price floor and lifting nearby support.

While butter charges ahead, powders remain unfazed, and cheese shows little of the same urgency. Still, the tone of the market feels one-sided, with buyers dominating and little in sight to reverse the trend.

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🧭 Fundamentals: Balanced, But Tilted

There’s no game-changing news driving this rally—just a continuation of mildly bullish signals. Supply-side indicators suggest weakening fat content and a decline post-peak milk. While EU milk production forecasts remain slightly above last year, it doesn’t feel like a market flush with product.

On the demand side, sentiment is steady, if not exuberant. Buyers remain present, but not necessarily aggressive. Still, a persistent imbalance between buyer activity and seller availability is what’s shaping price action. Real supply and demand might look balanced on paper, but in trading? Buyer appetite wins the day.

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🧈 Butter: Up, and Supported

We opened today with buyers only. Cream prices ranging between €8,400 and €8,500 lend strong support to spot butter. On paper, Q4 cash-and-carry justifies forward values of €7,500–€7,600. That level still feels tough for end users to accept—but some are starting to nibble.

Last year, many held out too long and missed the rally. This year’s mindset seems different:
“We can always buy expensive,” has turned into
“If prices fall, we can still pick up something cheap.”

That shift suggests downside risk is limited, while the ceiling is capped only by confidence. Most of our partners, from buyer to seller, agree that 2025 won’t be tighter than 2024, so expectations for higher highs are still muted—despite today’s strength.

Trades expected to open with offers:

• 9 loads NL/DE/BE for Q3 @ €7,425
• 12 loads Irish butter for Q3 @ €7,375
• 4 loads Polish Sweet Cream (May–June) @ €7,300
• 2 loads Irish Salted butter @ €7,150
• 2 loads Irish Sweet Cream @ €7,325

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🧀 Cheese: Waiting for a Signal

Despite the butter strength, cheese remains calm—eerily so. While some argue it’s just a matter of time before cheese follows butter’s footsteps, there’s still no rally in sight.

The cheese market doesn’t benefit from cash-and-carry mechanisms, so production from peak milk will need to find direct buyers. With that in mind, any potential rally seems more likely after the summer flush—perhaps in September.

We start with:

• 4 loads Gouda 48% NL/DE (June) @ €4,350
• 4 loads Edam 48% NL/DE (June) @ €4,300
• 3 loads UK Curd (March production) @ €4,550
• 6 loads Mozzarella for Q3 @ €4,400

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💨 Powders: Calm, but Willing

The powder market isn’t winning awards for excitement, but it is gaining traction on activity. There’s clearly more willingness on both sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Skimmed milk powder finds its footing between €2,350–€2,375, and sweet whey trades around €910.

Volatility may be missing, but equilibrium is finding its place. Buyers and sellers agree the market likely won’t move much, and that makes it easier to trade at today’s sweet spot.

No firm bids or offers yet

→ But if you tell us your sweet spot, we’ll help you find a match.

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🎯 Final Thought

Butter is blazing the trail, while powders hum along and cheese waits in the wings. No explosive shift in fundamentals, but momentum, sentiment, and tactical buying are holding the wheel. The question now is whether this is the final push before summer slows things down—or the start of a longer bull run.