Daily Dairy Digest: 25th of January

This seems to become the week of the producer. In the previous weeks, we saw traders take the lead and showed us where the market needed t be, in the first two days of this year we see its producers taking over that task. Not only via us, but also via our partners we hear a lot of trades are done with producers for the first time offering sharper than most traders are able to. 

It's a signal that most seem to have accepted that the prices of 2022 have to be put behind us and that prices of 2020 and 2021 are more realistic now supply and demand are in about the same balance as they were back then. We think the supply side is even a bit better than it was back then, so prices might trade a bit lower.

We do however feel that in the range of -10% and + 10% from today's price the market should find a comfortable range to trade in. The high prices might have looked good for farmers, but the difference for consumers is to big to bridge the gap in one year. We need several years of inflation for consumers to get used to higher prices.

We do hear some aggressive sales of cheese from Friesland Campina for Gouda and Edam at prices close to € 2700,- for February and March and in Germany, we hear of a big producer who is selling its Gouda even at € 2500,- may it be slightly aged. For butter, it seems to be that the Irish, Danish and Polish are the most aggressive from the producer's side, while on powders we hear eastern EU product is trading close to € 2300.