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More Bearish Signals, but the futures still looks firm.

2 min de lectura

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    Yesterday was another difficult day for the market. Sellers keep pushing products on the market, but without much buying interest, the price seems to move down a bit more. Only the cheese prices seem to be able to hold quite firm levels although the activity we see is slowing down quickly. If it's an early sign of a correction or just the market taking it a step lower remains to be seen. Those who read our updates know what we expect. 

    Meanwhile, the market is facing some new difficulties. Algeria has adopted new regulations concerning Halal regulation requirements for all future and existing contracts. We understand this is giving more problems to suppliers and trades who already have products in production or even on the water.

    At the same time, the ECB has decided to further increase the interest rates, unlike their colleagues from the FED. In addition, they seem to be hinting at more interest hikes in the coming periods. This is pushing the strength of the euro up again, giving a more unfavourable exchange rate for export business. At the moment of writing, we see the exchange rate at 1.095 instead of the 1.065 earlier this month.

    Looking at the US market we see prices over there also remain under pressure with all commodities trading slightly lower on the CME. Talking with our partners in the US and reading the US reports, the lack of export in combination with sluggish internal demand and relatively strong production numbers are cause for concern for lower prices.

    The liquid market shows to faces. We see the cream market trading lower. We hear prices in France between € 5100-5200 and although Germany is reporting prices more between € 5300-5400. SMC prices remain firm, with strong demand from Greece driving this.

    All things put together we don't see many new bullish signals. Only the steady price for cheese suggests that this commodity market is in balance. Butter and SMP keep trading lower and with the summer in front of us, we fear a firmer market might not come before September. But after September most market participants seem to think the market can move up again.

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