Last Update 2024

In the past year, we often began our updates with phrases like "Last week," "Yesterday," or "In the past two trading days." While some might say it’s a bit early to close the year and look back, that is exactly what we’re going to do today. So, no long analyses about why we think the market is bearish or bullish—just a quick look back and a peek into next year. After writing 167 updates in 2024, we can safely say this has been one of the most extreme years we have ever seen in dairy.

To put the year into perspective from a Get Fair Dairy point of view: we managed over 890 successful brokerage deals between our dairy partners. We connected 44 different sellers to 55 different buyers across 18 different product specifications. We saw the highest butter prices we’ve ever brokered at €8,900, and for cream we hit €11,500.

Powders: More of More
SMP MH Codex levels have traded within a relatively tight range via our system, with the highest trade at €2,650 (FCA) and the lowest at €2,200. The spot market price never moved much out of its comfort range of €2,350 - €2,650, and we forecast a similar market for at least the first six months of 2025. We have also grown our business in non-standardized materials. In line with the Codex market, we haven’t seen major price swings. The highest recorded price was €2,700 and the lowest €2,350. There seems to be plenty of product available, and we expect the start of 2025 to be weaker due to an increase in cheaper SMC availability. We would be slightly bearish on the non-standardized material market for 2025.

We also started brokering more WMP/FCMP this year. With over 1,200 mt traded, we’re pleased to be connecting more partners and hope to grow that volume in 2025. WMP prices have seen a relatively steady increase due to high milkfat prices. Since we began brokering, prices surged from €3,600 up to our highest trade at €4,400. Our outlook for next year is relatively stable. We foresee a bit more export demand but some softening due to lower fat prices in the EU. If these two factors balance each other, the first six months of 2025 should trade between €4,000 and €4,400. Our forecast is stable.

We also did a bit more SWP, although we only moved about 500 mt. It’s not enough to see a clear trend, but speaking with our partners and considering SWC prices, SWP prices seem to have limited downward potential and more potential to move up. Our outlook for the first months of 2025 is stable to firm.

Cheese: Relatively Boring With a Few Hiccups

The cheese market has been relatively boring. In the first six months of the year, prices hardly moved. After the summer, prices jumped up following the butter price, but unlike butter, they softened again and slowly returned to the average levels of the first six months of 2024. For Gouda, prices are almost back to the same levels. Last year, Gouda prices in January, February, and March stayed flat at €3,950. We expect a similar pattern in 2025 and forecast prices roughly between €3,850 and €4,050 for the coming months. Our forecast is slightly bearish for all cheeses.

Mozzarella prices last year dipped a bit below these levels, and we see roughly the same prices again. With a bid-ask range of €3,700 and €3,850, it feels like we will enter 2025 similarly to 2024. We think there is a small potential to trade slightly lower than the current bid-ask spread, but with very little excitement expected.

Apart from some export deals for cheddar and some Emmental deals, we haven’t grown our cheese book as much as we wanted. For those interested in growing their cheese business with us, please let us know your specific needs.

Butter: A Crazy and Bumpy Ride

And now for the craziest market we have ever seen: the butter market. With the lowest price brokered in February at €4,990 and the highest price in November at €8,900, we have never seen such a wide range. All records were broken due to the lowest butter stocks in EU history. We’ve had fierce debates with partners who found us too bullish, and similar debates with those who felt we weren’t bullish enough. Cream prices reached the highest ever seen at €11,500. It will probably take a full year before we see such prices again.

Our forecast for 2025 is even more volatile. We will enter the year with historically low stocks. But even with these low stocks, we doubt we’ll see a bullish Q1. Traditionally, the EU produces much more butter from the second half of December until June and stores it for use in the second part of the year. However, those stocking butter need an incentive. Looking at the market, we don’t see that incentive yet, and we don’t expect it unless Q1 prices drop below the cost price for many buyers. As mentioned in previous updates, that cost price is roughly €6,500 to €6,800. Therefore, we expect sellers to be incentivized to buy and stock butter in Q1 at a price range between €6,000 and €6,300. Our outlook for the first months of 2025 is bearish.

BUT, carrying the lowest stocks in history into 2025 will likely have a similar effect in the second half of the year. Unless the EU ramps up butter production in 2025—which we think is unlikely—we will still have a shortage in Q3/4. Unlike this year, we expect to face a bigger shortage across all products, leading us to forecast an even higher average price for butter in 2025. Overal our butter outlook long term remains extremely bullish. 

Finally

For the next three weeks, we won’t be supporting our partners in their trades. We are closing up shop and will be back on January 6th, 2025, to help and support you where we can. Next week, we will still be available for ongoing cases and deals, but from December 23rd until January 6th, we will step back from business entirely to focus on something more important than dairy—our families. So, no butter brokerage, but baking cookies; no mozzarella trades, but enjoying a burger at our favourite restaurant; and no milk powder madness, just a bottle of milk at night for our smallest one to drift back to sleep.

Many thanks to over 1,000 readers of the Get Fair Dairy Update. We wish you a healthy, pleasant, and wonderful holiday season, and we hope to welcome all of you back in 2025.