Flush Season, Flat Sentiment

The past two trading days offered two distinct moods. Wednesday was calm and uneventful; Thursday, by contrast, showed a bit more energy. We often find ourselves debating whether the market is bullish or bearish, and the classic question remains: are prices rising or falling? But the honest answer might be less exciting—this market is flat. Prices are largely drifting sideways. Zoom in too far and you’ll spot a flicker of volatility trade to trade. Zoom out, and the line looks stubbornly horizontal. More milk is pulling the market slightly downward, but that gravitational pull may lift just as quickly once we clear the seasonal peak some seem to think.

Liquids: Full Flush Mode

The liquid market is feeling the full pressure of the spring flush. Cream is trading between €7700 and €7850 FCA, though some report deals clearing below that range. Meanwhile, SMP concentrate prices are showing hints of support. In Ireland and the UK, pressure remains heavy, but on the continent, SMC prices appear to be stabilizing between €1600 and €1750. Raw milk prices tell a similar tale—still below 40 cents in France, and between 41 and 45 cents in Germany and the Netherlands.

Traders active in the cream market are preparing for more of the same in the coming weeks—perhaps with a slight softening depending on the weather and the resulting demand from the fresh product segment. There's an old market myth that cream always rebounds after the first week of May. A nice story, but the data says otherwise. Over the past five years, only 2024 showed a significant May-to-July rally. In the other four years, May prices were broadly in line with July. The real trend break tends to hit in August—when Western EU milk supply hits its seasonal low. The table below shows monthly NL cream averages to back that up.

Year	May	June	July	August
2020	€4,000	€4,050	€4,050	€4,400
2021	€4,700	€4,800	€4,550	€5,000
2022	€8,200	€8,500	€8,200	€8,400
2023	€5,200	€5,300	€5,000	€5,200
2024	€7,100	€7,800	€8,100	€9,200

And for those who swear cream can't dip in Q4 because of seasonal demand—2020’s peak came in early October, 2021 in early November, 2022 back in October again. Only in 2023 and 2024 did the market top out in the first week of December. The most bullish months for cream are August-September and October if we look at the data.

Butter: Front-Heavy Pressure, Demand Hiding Behind

Butter has been doing its best impression of Schrödinger’s commodity—both volatile and stable at the same time. Prices rallied sharply for nearby positions and corrected just as sharply again. Falling cream prices and increased producer sales have pushed more butter into a market already well-covered for May and June. However, a few lower trades in Q3 and Q4 were enough to draw buyers back in, confirming that appetite remains robust around the €7000–€7100 mark.

The heaviest pressure is coming from Poland, where stock buildups from earlier this year are being unwound. Some producers, particularly those pricing relative to cream, are being forced to accept lower numbers. We've brokered Polish butter down to €6760 and German product around €7050.

Meanwhile, Irish producers are watching continental developments closely. Strong US sales and low domestic stock have helped them avoid price cuts so far. Still, if cream prices remain low and Polish/German butter stays under €7000, Irish sellers are likely to match market levels—though they’re all betting on a rebound once cream tightens again.

Cheese: Tracking Butter’s Every Move

Cheese has been rangebound this year, tightly tracking butter’s trajectory. Gouda opened 2024 at €4200, peaked at €4450 in March, and is now back to €4250. Mozzarella started at €4000, briefly touched €4350, and currently trades around €4120. While €4350 trades were rare, Mozzarella seems to follow the fat market’s rhythm.

Consensus in the cheese trade is clear: if butter holds above €7000, cheese stays afloat. If butter slips, cheese follows. Our partners confirm that current availability for nearby is good, demand is steady, and forward pricing remains elusive. Export demand is softer, but domestic EU consumption seems to be filling the gap. Meanwhile, strong butter production has siphoned off enough milk to prevent excess cheese volumes—at least for now.

The flush is currently redirecting milk toward cheese production, meaning supply should remain healthy and might even get looser for the next 4–8 weeks. Beyond that, it will be butter’s ability to hold ground that determines cheese price stability. Assuming stable milk volumes and no major disruptions, the current price ranges for Gouda and Mozzarella look likely to define the market’s midline.

Powders: A Gentle Lift, or Just Gas Before the Climb?

Dare we say it—powder feels almost bullish? Okay, let’s not get carried away. But the market is at least trying to lift off from the floor it’s been glued to. Conditions are favorable: US prices are climbing, New Zealand is between seasons, and EU stocks are relatively lean.

We’re seeing SMP Codex exports around €2350–€2400, and non-standardized product hovering at €2400 with decent interest. We closed a fresh production trade at €2475 for 37% protein—nothing to sneeze at in this context.

The real question is how long this window stays open. ONIL is out of the market for now, having locked in over 15Kmt until September. With New Zealand production on the horizon, traders and producers would be wise not to wait for €2600 again—it may not come. Once international buying eases off, EU producers will need to find domestic homes for their stock, fast.

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Conclusion

In a market this finely balanced, the biggest risk isn’t a sharp move—it’s a lack of movement. When things hover too long in neutral, it can unsettle even the most seasoned traders. We’re seeing some flickers—spots of demand, a few shifts in cream, tactical selling in butter and powder—but nothing dramatic just yet. For now, it’s a market for calm heads and careful timing. Stay close to your customers, keep an eye on the weather, and be ready—because the next shift may not knock, it might just walk right in.