Daily Dairy Digest: Ending of Q1
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Yesterday was a reasonably active day. We see buyers and sellers on every commodity, but it is not always easy to get buyers and sellers on the same page. We do notice that for SMP and butter, there are more offers on the market, and producers are starting to negotiate and accept lower levels for further out!
More and more info is starting to get out on retail demand but the trend everywhere is visible, retail demand is down. We found the trend of retail sales in Sweden quite telling. For the first time in 30 years, retail sales are down 9.4%. Some might say that only looking at Sweden isn't fair to compare the whole of Europe, but we think Sweden is financially one of the more stable countries and we would expect to see similar numbers for the rest of the northern European countries. 
Talking about the retail prices we do hear that price negotiations for butter and cheese are now being concluded. Butter prices are settled between € 4800 and € 4950 for german retail. The first signal we get for cheese is being contracted at a block price equivalent between € 3100 and € 3300. These lower prices might lead to a bounce in retail demand, if not we expect the price of foil cheese to drop just below the levels concluded for retail.
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