Back to Bearish

A short one today, but plenty to unpack. Yesterday the market finally woke up from its nap, with over 1000mt brokered in a single day. Butter decided to throw another tantrum and nosedived, while SMP kept its cool with a steady-to-slightly-positive tone. We’ve seen this show before—last week, in fact—when butter dipped early and came back swinging later. So… will this week break the cycle? Your guess is as good as ours.

Cream kicked off the party early, with hints it might trade lower. That was enough to light a fire under activity. We’re hearing offers for cream around €8600 in Western EU, and down to €8500 in the East. Still, some are banking on a last-minute Easter-driven rebound. If that doesn’t happen? Let’s just say the word "concern" might start floating around. Meanwhile, SMC seems just as weak as last week.

Butter: Bears are Back 🐻

The morning started strong, with NL/DE/BE Q2+Q3 butter trading around €7400. That didn’t last. By afternoon, Q3 had slid to €7235 before finally finding some support. Irish butter? Same story—kicked off at €7330 for June–July, then stumbled to €7250, with demand evaporating below €7200. April–May still sees some buyers at higher levels, hinting that short-term tightness isn’t over just yet. Fresh Polish butter also joined the bearish sentiment, falling from €7400 to €7250.

We’d have expected prices just below €7400 to find support, considering the buyer interest lined up earlier this week. But then futures swooped in like a wrecking ball—Q4 dropped to €7200, and our buyers blinked, suddenly expecting even lower levels.

Outside the EU, Ukraine continues to undercut, with offers between €6600–€6700 depending on quality. But the real budget butter still comes from the US—$6125 CIF Rotterdam for EU-approved plants, and $5950 CIF Middle East. Yes, really.

➡️ Expected Butter Offers:

• 5 trucks of Fresh German butter for May–June at €7350

• 6 trucks of Irish butter for June–July at €7250

• 6 trucks of Polish Sweet Cream butter Q2 at €7250

• 4 trucks of Ukrainian butter at €6700 DAP NL

Cheese: Feeling Heavy 🧀

It’s not panic mode, but cheese has definitely put on some extra weight. And not the good kind. Sentiment is still following butter like a loyal puppy, and more sellers are quietly entering the room. Gouda, Mozzarella, Edam, Cheddar—you name it, they’re offering.

The cheese is still young, so no one’s pushing the panic button just yet. But as one partner said: “Give it two or three slow weeks, and that stockpile gets real big, real fast.”

➡️ Expected Cheese Offers:

• 6 loads of Mozzarella for April / May at €4325

• 6 loads of Gouda for Q2 at €4450

• 6 loads of Edam for Q2 at €4450

• 4 loads of Gouda for April at €4475

Powders: The Sideways Shuffle 🧂

Meanwhile, powders are just... vibing. SMP traded again around €2400 for non-standardized (36% protein as is), with low heat closing at similar levels. Offers are trickling in between €2380 and €2450, but buyers are stubborn around €2350.

A small boost came from the USD strengthening, which helps exports. But let’s be honest—relying on the dollar to stay strong is like expecting butter prices to stay stable. Not a bet we’d take.

➡️ Expected SMP Offers:

• 300mt Limelco for April/May/June at €2450

• 100mt Arla Germany for April at €2385

• 50mt Yew Tree non-standardized at €2430

Markets are skittish, sentiment’s shifting, and futures are throwing curveballs. In short: stay close to your screens and maybe keep a stress ball nearby. Need more info or ready to move on offers? You know where to find us.