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Weekly Update Week 12: Price Consensus

2 min czytania

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    The market last week was quite a stable one. Prices for all commodities moved up and down a bit but the market opening for this week is strangely similar to last week. Every conversation with sellers gives us the feeling the market might move up significantly over the following days, and every conversation with buyers makes us think the market will break. But for closeby there seems to be consensus about the market price. 

    We do notice that traded/brokered volumes are down compared to the previous weeks, and we have several partners confirming the same. The first 10 weeks of this year have been much more active than last years, but now the pace slows down. It does fit in our vision that buyers were more than happy to lock in bigger volumes compared to previous years, eating away stock/long positions in the market. If these buyers would slow down now the milk flush is nearing its peak, those stocks/long positions might start to grow again.

    A few things to watch for this week:

    1. Easter demand

    During the last weeks, demand for easter (9th of April) was putting a bit of a floor under the market for some products (mainly cream), but last week we already noticed some partners complaining about the demand being less visible compared to previous years. Also, cream buyers confirmed that demand for this and the next weeks seemed ok, but offers well below € 5000,- were available for weeks 14/15 again.

    2. GDT on Tuesday

    On Tuesday we have another GDT and the last one was a bit disappointing. Demand for China still isn't as good as some were expecting. We still don't hear strong demand from China from our partners, and NZX futures aren't in dictating anything exciting will happen Tuesday.

    3. Banking Crisis

    Ok, not something that will influence demand or supply from one day to another. But depending how things will end with Credit Suisse central banks might have to adjust their monetary policies, think affects the strength of the euro / dollar. And the big swings we have been seeing in the first months of this year are causing massive changes in how Europe can compete on the export markets.

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