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From a low price, to a surprise!

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Raporty rynkowe ukazują się wyłącznie po angielsku. Pozostała część serwisu jest dostępna w Twoim języku.

The GDT trend over the months has been bearish, and so were our expectations. But the GDT Event from this Tuesday ended not at a lower price, but with a surprise! With a plus of 3.2%, we were shocked to see almost all offered products ended with a plus! SMP even went up 7% being the biggest surprise of this auction and now trading at levels as seen at the end of February. So how does this impact the EU market?

Our prediction (a minus between 2-4%) is a big miss in this event. As said we were a bit uncertain about the de price of powders, but for butter, AMF and WMP we were not expecting an increase. But the butter price increased by 4.9% to $ 4828,- trading almost flat v.s. AMF also showed an increase of 4.7%. WMP increased by 1% to $ 3089.

Looking at the SMP we do see something we have never seen before. NZ SMP is trading on a $480,- premium v.s. Arla SMP. ($2400,- v.s. $ 2850). Why this gap is so big we can't really explain. If someone could help us shine some light on the matter, please let us know.

Future markets on CME and EEX seemed to show a reaction with prices moving up quickly for SMP/NFDM. But for butter, the market aren't that convinced yet this increase has an impact. International butter prices are now quite well aligned with NZ butter still being the cheapest compared to the US and the EU.

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