Commodtiy Prices Crack, While Cream only Crumbles

" Activity Returns, Prices Retreat " 

The first three trading days of the week have, once again, been active. Over 1,000mt of product changed hands through our books, signaling a reawakening of market momentum. But the mood across the board feels distinctly weaker: cheese prices are hovering just above €4,000, butter has slipped below €7,200, and powders are testing fresh lows. Only cream appears to be holding its ground. While some partners remain bullish—calling this dip a temporary glitch—others believe we’re witnessing a structural shift. Most, however, are simply searching for direction.

And us? We asked for a more active market. We got it. For now, that’s good enough.

Liquids: Stable With Lower Volumes

As always, it starts with milk. Global data continues to show improved year-on-year collections. May milk solids rose by +3.1% in the US and a striking +8% in New Zealand, fueled by strong farmgate prices incentivizing production. In constrained supply regions like the Netherlands, output was marginally lower (-0.5% YoY MS).

Spot raw milk prices are holding steady. French milk trades just under 50ct, while NL/DE sits between 52–54ct. SMC saw a slight rebound from last week’s dip, with values still around €2,000, give or take. But with butter and cheese under pressure, cream drew the most attention.

While producers opened the week quoting higher, deals settled closer to last week’s levels. Benelux cream traded between €8,750–€8,850 FCA, with similar prices reported across Eastern Europe. Only France held above the €9,000 mark.

Butter: Pressure Mounts, Buyers Circle

The butter market’s bearish tone deepened this week. After peaking near €7,500 a few weeks ago, prices have been ticking lower—modestly at first, more sharply now. Trades for Irish and German butter for June and July came in around €7,180, clearly below official quotations. Polish butter even changed hands at €7,000 for Ostrowia origin.

Closer to home, we traded NL/DE/BE July/August at €7,185 and heard August/September at €7,200 via D4B. A broader origin July/August strip traded at €7,170 FCA NL, with Sep-Dec moving at €7,275. Over 700mt of butter moved in total. The key question now: will prices fall further? Buyers are sniffing around, but their bids are cautious. As long as cream remains north of €8,700, sellers aren’t likely to blink first.

The bears believe producers still need to offload volumes for Q3, especially as cheese prices weaken, and butter production might rise. Butter and cream might soon look like the best way out. But bulls argue farmgate prices above 55ct make current commodity levels unsustainable, expecting sellers to dig in and force prices higher again.

Cheese: July & August Under Stress

Cheese is looking heavy. Buyer interest is thin, and inventories are starting to grow. Around 200mt traded via GFD—suggesting some life is returning—but prices continue to slip. Mozzarella sits just above €4,000 FCA, while Gouda and Edam are circling €4,100. Cheddar is under pressure too, with the €4,600 line fading from view.

July/August demand appears largely covered, but sellers are still seeking outlets for sizable volumes for July. If demand doesn’t pick up soon, expect that surplus to roll into August. Those looking to stock up for post-summer might need to sit tight. Sellers are acknowledging the short-term dip, but most remain confident that prices will rebound come September.

Powders: Stuck in the Middle

Powder trading was busy again this week, with over 600mt moving at relatively flat price levels. While bearish sentiment suggests further softness, the market remains well-supported, for now. A breakout? Not yet. A breakdown? Also no.

SMP (Codex) continues to slide, with trades well below €2,300 FCA NL. Non-standardised high-protein SMP (37% as-is) traded at €2,435 DAP NL, and more sellers are appearing at similar levels. WMP/FCMP feels softer as well. Partners are cautious—there’s limited upside, and real concern for the downside if EU fat prices lose their footing.

Final Thought:

This is a market that’s moving—but not necessarily in one direction. Volume is back, but clarity isn’t. Bulls and bears both have ammo, and the standoff is real. For now, fundamentals are shifting quietly behind the scenes, but if price pressure keeps building while cream holds its line, we may see one side blink soon. Until then, we continue to broker. Eyes wide open.