How Trumps Victory Might Help the EU Dairy Bulls

So, here we are, waking up to the reality of another four years with Trump in the White House. Sure, not everyone in the EU is thrilled about it, but we’ll see how his tenure actually plays out for the dairy market on this side of the Atlantic. In the short run, though, his win seems to have put a bit of pep in the bulls’ step. The dollar's gained strength, trading at 1.07 against the euro, which might just ease the path for EU sellers to close those much-needed export deals. Long-term, it’s anyone's guess, but don’t be surprised if trade agreements start shifting, and the Ukraine situation feels a ripple or two.

Now, we’re not about to credit yesterday’s jump in the dairy market purely to Trump’s victory. Still, the market moved up again. Demand for SMP is on the rise, with sellers pulling back a bit. SWP powder prices are also climbing, largely fueled by export demand. Liquids are holding steady with last week’s prices, except for cream, where things are getting interesting. Cream traded as high as €11,000 DAP in France, with most EU trades landing between €10,300 and €10,500. And yes, demand at these levels seems solid for the next couple of weeks.

On the butter front, the market’s firmed up even more. Sweet Cream butter traded as high as €8,150 for Irish sweet cream and €8,050 for NL/DE/BE. There’s even talk of fresh Polish sweet cream butter reaching over €8,500. Q1 prices have also nudged up, moving from €7,400 on Tuesday to €7,625, though they did cool down a touch. We’re seeing solid Q1 demand at €7,450, with offers just over €7,500.

We were a bit surprised by the modest increase in EU butter quotations. De Dutch increased to € 7650 (roughly € 350 below where we see the market) and the French did (again) not quote at all. The Germans remained stable at € 8000, wich seems more in line with our market view. We would expect quotation to increase next week, pushing up future prices a bit more than they got impacted today.

Our market opens as followed:

We’re set to kick off with the following markets…

NL/DE/BE

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
November	€7900	88	€8075	44
Week 49	€7900	88	€8100	66
Q1	€7450	132	€7550	198
Q2	€7000	132	€7200	66

Irish Butter

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
November	€7650	44	€8000	88
December	€7400	44	€7650	110
Q1	€7300	132	€7850	132

Sweet Cream Butter

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
Nov-Dec	€7700	44	€8050	44
Q1	€7200	132	€7600	132

Cheese has also seen some better bids for Q1, but no sellers were willing to bite. Prices are aligning with November and December levels, which feels a bit more stable after the recent backwardation. Gouda offers are around €4,550 for November, while Mozzarella is holding at €4,350 for November-December and Q1, hinting at a slightly firmer tone in the market.

Meanwhile, powder is showing a bit more muscle. We’re seeing good Q1 and Q2 demand just over €2,500 to €2,550, depending on origin and age. Futures are higher, and export opportunities are pushing sellers to aim for even loftier prices. There’s plenty of chatter about rising export demand, though we haven’t inked any deals ourselves to confirm the climb. With a stronger dollar, the U.S. looks a bit less competitive, which could mean more doors opening for EU products on the international scene.