Topping Off or Taking Profits?

Yesterday we had again an active market. And where cheese prices keep increasing, we see a bit of a slowdown in butter prices and a correction in powder prices. The question is if the market is topping off, or if it is just partners taking profits. As we had a long day and only a short amount of time to prepare the update we kept today's update short and simple. 

Looking at the cheese markets we see that the market for Gouda and Edam keeps trading higher, or keeps being offered higher is the right word. We didn't manage to broker any deals and we didn't hear a lot of deals are being closed. Buyers for cheese are now trying to find offers between € 3850 and € 3900 for Gouda and Edam, we welcome any seller to offer us product. Looking at the Gouda/Edam side of the market you can't be anything but bullish! However, the demand for Mozzarella, Cheddar and Emmental remains very difficult to find.

Gouda / Edam: Bullish market with prices between € 3850/€ 3900 (we welcome sellers to give us a call)
Mozzarella / Cheddar: Stable/Bearish with sellers for mozza at € 3550 and cheddar curd around € 3850 (welcome to give bids)

Looking at the butter market we had a quiet day. We did receive more offers, but it seems our buyers aren't interested in any of the offers we are presenting above € 5000,-. Apart from some specific needs, it seems that most buyers can wait a few more weeks before engaging with the market. Creamprices today firmed/stayed firm with prices mentioned between € 6900-€7000. On futures, we understand there have been some sellers appearing at € 5400- € 5450 levels for Q2. On the Nui platform, we see a butter spread for Q1 between € 4950 buyers and € 5200 sellers. This is roughly where we would see the market as well.

Lactic NL/DE/BE:  topping off, stable with offers for Q4 between € 5150-5250 fresh/frozen and bids below € 5000 and we have a Q1 market with bids just below € 5000,- and sellers just above € 5200,-
Lactic Irish: topping off / stable with offers around € 5150 en bids below € 5000

The powder market clearly took a step backwards. We traded almost 700mt of SMP and BMP with SMP prices dropping back to prices of € 2425 for older material and € 2525 for 6 months old Solarec. BMP prices dropped toward € 2150. It seems slightly lower SMC prices, a weaker GDT Pulse (-4%) and more sellers on EEX and CME pushed prices down a bit. Some argue it's traders taking a profit, others say it's a well-needed correction. Markets might have been overheating a bit and for Europe, the big spread between NZ products and EU products is becoming problematic. We also see some more offers for non-standardised products appearing at € 2600 DAP NL for 36% UK products.

SMP Codex: Bearish outlook as worldwide prices are well below the EU market, we see more sellers, less buyers and worldwide signals are starting to look more bearish for EU producers of SM