Rangebound & Restless

The first two trading days of the week have been, let’s say… uneventful. With half the industry networking in Amsterdam at the PLMA and the rest eyeing GDT results, urgency has left the building. Buyers feel covered, sellers feel no pressure — and Q3/Q4 is where the action is expected. The eerie part? Everyone’s saying the same thing.

Whether we speak to producers, end users, or fellow traders, the story is consistent: low activity, high uncertainty, and bearish undercurrents. Yet, despite the gloom in tone, it’s the buying side showing more willingness to engage. Sellers? More reserved. With more buyers than sellers sniffing around, we don’t see much reason for prices to drop further anytime soon.

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🤝 PLMA Sentiment Check: Split Views and Soft Signals

From the PLMA floor, the feedback is mixed. Some buyers and sellers feel bullish, citing firm pricing during peak season and concerns over drought and bluetongue. Others remain bearish, pointing to strong milk output across the EU and shaky demand sentiment.

Until September, when data should give a clearer picture and the dust settles on supply/demand balance, it seems we’re stuck in a sideways channel. In practical terms:

• 🧈 Butter: €7000–€7400

• 🧀 Gouda/Edam: €4250–€4500

• 🍕 Mozzarella: €4000–€4350

• 💨 SMP: €2300–€2500

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🌍 GDT Snapshot: Slightly Bearish, but not for Europe

The GDT index dipped by 0.9%, but don't let that headline mislead you.

• 📉 Cheddar (-9%) and lactose (-13%) corrected after their previous rally, but remain higher than two auctions ago.

• 🧈 Butter dropped 1.5%, but EU sentiment remains bullish. Solarec sold June at €7150 (felt cheap), July/August closer to €7330, aligning with EEX.

• 💨 SMP corrected mildly by 0.7%. EU prices actually moved higher, but Arla’s performance felt off-sync with our trades, which leaned lower.

• 🌍 WMP dropped 1% — in line with expectations.

• 🍕 Mozzarella rose 0.7% — sideways in our view. The big question remains: will EU milk shift further into mozzarella? Some doubt the rally, some the capacity to increase production. If production doesn't increase, expect no relief on prices.

In short, GDT confirms the relative sideways sentiment. We do see that where prices have underperformed, we see a firmer tone. Where they’ve peaked, we see softening.

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🧈 Butter: Buyers and Sellers in Formation

The butter market continues to show signs of tension. After a modest push higher in recent weeks, offers have started to return — but at firmer levels. The range-bound dynamic is becoming increasingly predictable: as prices near €7100, buyers resurface; as we approach €7400, sellers step back in. With both sides now aware of the pattern, it’s tough to secure volume at the low end, and just as hard to sell at the top. Most of what we broker clears between €7150 and €7250 — a tight and telling bandwidth that reflects the current stand-off.

Today’s Offers

• 6 loads NL/DE/BE Q3 at €7400

• 6 loads Irish June at €7175

• 4 loads Polish Sweet Cream May at €7100

• 4 loads Irish Lactic July at €7225

Today’s Bids

• 5 loads Polish Sweet Cream July at €6950

• 6 loads NL/DE/BE Q3 at €7250

• 4 loads Irish Lactic June at €7100

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🧀 Cheese: Mozzarella’s Moment?

Cheese activity is almost entirely mozzarella-driven right now. Why? No one knows for sure. Short-term tightness is making forward sellers skittish, and prices are rising. Meanwhile, the forward curve across cheese looks steeper, mirroring butter.

But unlike butter, cheese lacks a clear floor in our opionion. A price rally without a strong fundamental shift can reverse just as fast. Buyers aren’t rushing — most still favour the hand-to-mouth approach that’s worked for months.

Expecting Today

• Bid: 6 trucks Mozzarella Q3 at €4325

• Offer: 6 trucks Mozzarella Q3 at €4350

• Bid: 6 trucks Gouda Q3 at €4350

• Bid: 1 truck Cheddar curd (prompt loading, Eastern EU) at €4450

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💨 SMP: GDT Gives It a Nudge

Leading into the GDT, the tone felt more bearish than bullish. So the firmer outcome came as a mild surprise. That said, “firm” is relative — EU prices still sit well below their NZ counterparts. While EU SMP values nudged up by roughly €65/MT, NZ prices slipped by about the same margin. Whether that narrows the export gap remains an open question.

On the physical side, we continue to see offers for non-standardized Irish and UK product hovering around €2450 FCA, while bids remain more cautious — generally still under €2400. The gap persists, and for now, buyers aren’t closing it.

Current Levels

• Offers: Non-standardised UK/Irish material around €2450 FCA

• Bids: Circling under €2400

The gap remains — and the question is whether sentiment can close it.

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⚖️ Final Thoughts

What we see now is a market that wants to move but doesn't quite dare. Buyers have curiosity but no urgency. Sellers have hope but no pressure. With GDT nudging in one direction and PLMA chatter in another, we remain rangebound — but restless.