November Peaking!

The markets in the last few days have been rallying up again on cheese and butter. With the bullish momentum finally dragging end users over the line to engage as lower prices are not to be expected anytime soon we also see producers coming to the market to lock in some sales at the current prices. Butter prices are around € 5700 and Gouda prices are above € 4200, only SMP prices seem to be on their way down again. The question now is, are we now seeing the November Peak? Or can the market run higher from these price levels?

Milk collections in Ireland and France are the biggest worries in the market. One of the producers we work with told us it felt like milk is evaporating in Ireland with milk volumes dropping much faster than they expected. This is leading to some delays in the market, which is putting more pressure on the spot market.

The ONIL tender seems to be finalized. NZ took all the volumes for WMP and from the EU we hear that the volumes contracted are roughly 15kmt at reported prices between $ 3050 / $ 3100 CFR. The bullish effect the ONIL announcement had on the market seems to be fading away again. It seems that the EU market prices will trade a bit longer.

Looking at the market for liquids it seems Christmas production is peaking with cream prices reported between € 7300 and € 7600. It seems we are peaking and a softening of prices is not yet to be seen.

As we are struck by the flue again we keep the update a bit shorter :

Butter: More Sellers at Higher Prices

This week the butter market seems to be peaking! With the last days for Turkey to close business, the highest prices for cream and more buyers entering the market due to fear of the market rallying higher we have seen the butter prices peak at € 5675,- this week. We now see more sellers entering the market and we hear producers are coming to the market as well.

We expect to start the day with selling interest for:

• 6 loads NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen for November / December at € 5650
• 2 loads of French Lactic butter FCA NL/BE at € 5600
• 2 loads of Arla DK butter for November/December at € 5650
• 6 loads NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen for Q1 at € 5650
• 6 loads NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen for Q2 at € 5700

Cheese: Gouda Peaking

With more end users willing to lock in volumes for Q1 we see the market for Q1 take a lift of. Gouda prices have been reported to trade € 4200 FCA for Q1 and even at € 4250 for November / December. We hear mozzarella prices at  € 3750.

We expect to start the day with:

• a seller for 12 trucks Mozzarella for Feb-May at € 3800
• a seller for 9 trucks Gouda in Q1 at € 4250

Powder: Losing Strength

With ONIL closing a bit lower than expected we see that the little bullish momentum we felt over the last few days is fading as quickly as it came.  GDT Pulse also didn't boost the confidence of the market and. prices in the US are trading flatish. We brokered 300mt of Irish SMP at € 2495 FCA NL and we hear SMP FEED prices for Q1+Q2 have been trading down as well. Futures on EEX and CME follow the same slightly more bearish line.

We start the day with sellers for:

• 200mt non standerdized North Irish SMP at € 2650 FCA NL
• 200mt french SMP fca France € 2550 FCA France
• 200mt Irish SMP fca Ireland € 2550 FCE NL
• 48mt German SMP FCA NL at € 2450 (2022 production)