Not Bullish, Not Bearish — Just Danish

Last week showed a slightly weaker tone across dairy commodities. Prices for butter and cheese eased a bit, and so did values for WMP and FCMP. SMP traded largely sideways, while the rally in spot liquids came to a pause. Globally, the GDT index slipped by around 1.6%, with most of the weakness coming from powders. Meanwhile, the CME told a different story — butter and cheese remained strong, although NFDM lost some of its recent momentum.

This week, we — along with many of our partners — are headed to Copenhagen. Not necessarily to find answers about where the market will go (we’re not that naïve), but to find a few support groups to talk through the beautifully unpredictable dairy market of 2025. At the very least, we hope to share a drink and some fresh ideas on how to navigate what’s ahead.

The General Assembly couldn’t come at a better time. Across the board — traders, producers, end users — everyone’s looking for new strategies to hold on to. The traditional way of trading is being phased out by a new generation. Adapting isn’t always easy, but it is essential. The market nowadays isn’t shouting as much anymore. It’s thinking. And after several months of bullish undertones, most participants agree: it’s time to pause and reassess. From the talks with our partners, we think we can say 90% of the market agrees that.

• Spot liquidity remains well balanced,
• Buyers are cautious but not absent,
• Sellers are pragmatic, not panicked.

Cream, raw milk, and other liquid indicators suggest a stabilisation rather than a shift. There's no runaway rally in sight – but no cliff either on non of the commodities we broker.

🔍 Our read on the near-term market:

🟦 Liquids:
Prices are likely to remain rangebound in the short term. Steady demand meets limited surpluses — neither side has the upper hand. That said, extreme weather could tip the balance. Here in the Netherlands, we’ve gone from a rainy 16°C Monday to forecasts of 35°C and sunshine this Saturday. That could boost ice cream demand — and stress the cows. Whether the impact will be material or merely anecdotal remains to be seen.

🟨 Butter:
A touch of softness lingers, but most sellers are standing firm. As long as cream prices don’t collapse — and there’s no strong reason to expect they will — we foresee more origin swaps or shifts in delivery timing, not a change in overall positioning. A modest price dip of €50–€100 wouldn’t surprise us, but in truth, a steady market fits the fundamentals.

🧀 Cheese:
Still a waiting game, particularly in retail-driven formats like Gouda and mozzarella. We’ve seen better short-term availability across most categories, but forward markets remain wide. Sellers are holding out for premiums, while buyers are only locking in volume if it’s on par with today’s levels — or comes with a discount. The stalemate continues.

🌫️ Powders:
FCMP and WMP prices appear slightly under pressure. The recent GDT dip and softening sentiment in the fat complex are weighing on expectations. SMP, however, remains firmly within its familiar range — and we don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

📈 Strategic calm is replacing tactical chaos.

It’s becoming clearer that today's winners aren’t the loudest traders but the most adaptive ones. From more structured hedging tools to alternative trading formats like swaps and structured timing deals, we’re seeing a growing appetite for mechanisms that protect value — not just chase it. In Copenhagen, we’re not just talking about prices; we’re talking about how to future-proof strategies in a market that keeps rewriting its own rules.

We are happy to share a first peak into the GFD future and how our network and strategies could and should benefit most of the partners present in Copenhagen. So...

📬 Let’s connect

If you're in Copenhagen this week, come say hi. If not, drop us a message. We're always happy to share what we’re seeing — and hearing — from all corners of the dairy trade. And as always, keep an eye on the GFD app. We're just getting started.